Learning Center
What are Forecast and Event Contracts?
Forecast and Event Contracts let investors trade predictions on trends for specific yes-or-no questions.
Contracts can cover many topics including economic, financial or climate indicators.
Examples include: Consumer Price Index, Fed Funds Rate, temperatures, atmospheric CO2, energy, metals, and equity indexes.
How Do Forecast and Event Contracts Work?
For each contract you hold that expires "in the money", in reference to the settlement value,
you receive a fixed payout.
Pick Your Forecast or Prediction Market
Choose from ForecastEx Forecast Contracts on economic, financial or climate indicators, or CME Event Contracts on futures markets.
Trade Yes or No with ForecastTrader Event Contracts
Trade YES or NO positions of whether an event will happen based on your views, economic theories, or predictions. The "YES" price is based on how likely an event is to happen.
Generate income based on your insights
You can earn the difference between the purchase price and the closing price for each contract you own. In addition, Forecast Contracts pay an interest-like incentive coupon based on the closing market value of the positions that accrues daily and is paid monthly at a rate of 3.14% APY
| Contract Specs | ForecastEx | CME |
|---|---|---|
|
Markets |
Economic or Climate Indicators |
Select Futures markets |
|
Contract term |
Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly |
Daily |
|
Price quotation |
USD |
USD |
|
Contract size |
1 contract = $1.00 |
1 contract = $100.00 |
|
Minimum price increment |
$0.01 |
$1.00 |
|
Final settlement |
$0 or $1.00 |
$0 or $100.00 |
ForecastEx Forecast Contracts
Forecast Contracts let you trade your view on the outcomes of various economic and climate indicators.
Each contract pays USD 1.00 and your max profit per contract is USD 1.00 minus the contract cost. Forecast Contracts are quoted in USD 0.01 increments.
Additional information on Forecast Contracts
is available from ForecastEx
Visit ForecastEx
Example Forecast Contract Trade
"Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% this month"
Last month's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.8%
For the "Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% this month" Forecast Contract: YES is trading at USD 0.52. NO is trading at USD 0.49.
This indicates the market is assigning a 52% probability the US CPI will be above 3.8% this month and an 49% probability the US CPI will be below 3.8% this month.
You believe the US CPI will be above 3.8% and decide to buy 20 YES Forecast Contracts at USD 0.52 per contract for a total cost of USD 10.40
The US CPI comes in at 3.9% so each of your YES contracts has a fixed payout of USD 1.00.
You receive USD 1.00 for each YES for a total of USD 20.00. Since you paid USD 10.40 for the 20 YES contracts and commissions are USD 0.00 your profit on this trade is USD 9.60.
ForecastTrader Educational Resources
Market Commentary and Analysis
Commentary, analysis, and insight on US economic indicators from Interactive Brokers' senior economist Jose Torres.
Market Calendar
Trader's Academy Courses
Learn About Key Economic Events
As a trader, you will come across many factors that you must consider before entering or exiting the markets. Some of the most important aspects to look for are economic events that can move the markets drastically one way or another.
Some of the most important aspects to look for are potentially volatile, market moving economic events.
These can be positive or negative financial market events.
Monetary Measures, Economic Output and Corporate Profits (US)
This course covers the central banking system, the government bond system, fiscal budgets, economic growth calculations, and corporate profitability's importance. Some of the indicators include the money supply, yield curve, gross domestic product, and corporate profits.
Course Lessons:
Business and Consumer Activity and Confidence (US)
This course covers indicators that provide insight into economic activity and confidence like confidence, sales, incomes, production, and more.
Course Lessons:
- Purchasing Managers' Index for Manufacturing
- Consumer Price Index
- Industrial Production
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Consumer Confidence
- Retail Sales
Employment and the Labor Market (US)
This course explores a variety of labor market indicators that shed light on the composition of human work like participation, unemployment, employment, and wages.
Course Lessons:
- Labor Force Participation
- Payroll Employment
- Unemployment Claims
- Unemployment Rate
- Average Hourly Workweek
- Average Hourly Earnings
Construction and Real Estate (US)
This course covers indicators that track the real estate market and its many different aspects such as mortgage rates, mortgage applications, spending, prices, shovels in the ground, permitting and more.
Course Lessons:
- Housing Permits
- Housing Starts
- Housing Completions
- Construction Spending
- Home Price Index
- Existing Home Sales
- Mortgage Applications
- Mortgage Delinquencies
Trader's Academy Quiz
CME Event Contracts
CME event contracts let you trade your view on whether the price of key futures markets will move up or down by the end of each day's trading session.
Each contract pays USD 100.00 and your max profit per contract is USD 100.00 minus the contract cost, fees and commissions. CME event contracts are quoted in USD 1.00 increments.
View all CME event contracts, and to trade simply choose YES or NO.
Additional information on CME Event Contracts
is available from the CME Group
Visit CME Group
Example Event Contract Trade
"Will Gold close above USD 2,035.00 today?"
Gold starts trading at
USD 2,035.00
For the "Will Gold close above USD 2,035.00 today?" Event Contract: YES is trading at USD 19. NO is trading at USD 84.
This indicates the market is assigning a 19% probability that Gold will close above USD 2,035.00 today and an 84% probability that Gold will close below USD 2,035.00 today.
You believe Gold will close above USD 2,035.00 and decide to buy 2 YES Event Contracts at USD 19 per contract.
Gold closes at USD 2,085.00 so each of your YES contracts has a fixed payout of USD 100.00.
You receive USD 100.00 for each YES for a total of USD 200.00. Since you paid USD 38.00 for the 2 YES and commissions are USD 0.20 (USD 0.10 per contract) your profit on this trade is USD 161.80.
ForecastTrader Educational Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
Interested in Trading Event Contracts
at Interactive Brokers?
New to Interactive Brokers? Open an Account.
Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR) is an automated global electronic broker that serves individual investors, hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, registered investment advisors and introducing brokers.
Our four-decade focus on technology and automation allows us to provide our clients with a uniquely sophisticated, low-cost global platform for managing investments.
Our clients enjoy low-cost access to stocks, options, futures, currencies, bonds and funds from a single unified platform.
Already an Interactive Brokers Client?
Request trading permissions if you don't have Forecast/Event Contract trading permissions but would like to trade Forecast Contracts.
Trading permissions are usually approved immediately.
Trading on IBKR ForecastTrader
ForecastTrader is IBKR's prediction market trading experience, accessible through your existing IBKR login via TWS, IBKR Mobile, Client Portal, IBKR Desktop, IBKR GlobalTrader, API, or the ForecastTrader web interface.
How to Trade:
- Open ForecastTrader from any IBKR platform or directly via the ForecastTrader website.
- Search for Forecast Contracts (e.g. "Fed" for Fed Funds Rate, "Cons" for Consumer Price Index) or browse the topics presented on the screen.
- Click the event you want to trade.
- Click YES or NO to express your forecast and choose your quantity.
Trading Forecast Contracts on Other Trading Platforms
Forecast Contract positions are available for review from any of our trading platforms.
You can also seamlessly access IBKR ForecastTrader from our other trading platforms. Click a trading platform to learn how.
In the Mosaic Layout - Select the New Window menu icon and select IBKR ForecastTrader
In the Classic TWS Layout - Select the Trading Tools menu icon and select IBKR ForecastTrader
Alternatively, you may search for Forecast Contracts by entering a product description (e.g., "Consumer Price") into a Watchlist or the Help/Ticker Lookup field, selecting the Event Contract radio button to refine the results, and then choosing the appropriate contract.
Please note that TWS now supports the use of ScaleTrader, Accumulate/Distribute, and IBALGO+Accumulate/Distribute for Forecast Contracts.
Use the Search box at the top of any page to search for Forecast Contracts by entering a product description (e.g., "Consumer Price"). Click the Event tab and choose the appropriate contract.
Select the Trade button 
and select IBKR ForecastTrader.
Alternatively, select the Trade button followed by the search box at the top of the page. Enter a description for a product (e.g., "temperature") and choose the appropriate contract.
Select the Trade tab and select IBKR ForecastTrader.
Alternatively, enter a product description (e.g., "unemployment") in the Search field, select the Event menu option, and then choose the appropriate contract.
To navigate back to Client Portal, select Trade stocks, options, futures, and more at IBKR Client Portal button in the top left corner.
Select the Forecasts tab and choose the appropriate contract.
Alternatively, select the Explore tab followed by the search box at the top of the page. Enter a description for a product (e.g., "temperature") and choose the appropriate contract.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.